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Does Tevez Have the Best Plus-Minus in the Game?

Plus-minus differential has long functioned as one of hockey’s central statistics. Over the last two years, the stat has gathered momentum in the NBA to help measure an individual’s contribution to team performance beyond worn numbers like points and rebounds.

In soccer, the statistic is understandably ignored. Too many players working together on the field produce too few goals to statistically isolate one player’s contribution to team success. Except, that is, when you’re looking at Carlos Tevez.

Without the facts to back it up, I’m willing to bet that Tevez has the best plus-minus differential in the Premiership this season. Of course, playing for United automatically gives any player a good plus-minus, as United have the second best goal-differential in the league. But Tevez’ hand in that number, both as a starter and substitute, cannot be denied. If I had more time and better resources I would prove that, proportionally, he has contributed to it more than anyone.

Against Tottenham on Saturday, Sir Alex Ferguson made one change at halftime, down 2-0 at home. He brought on Tevez for Nani. United then scored five goals in 22 minutes. Although not always present in the highlight-clips of those goals, Tevez’ presence impacted almost all of them. His defensive pressure repeatedly forced Tottenham to turn the ball over. He sparked the counter-attacks that Rooney and Ronaldo finished.

His productivity is undeniable, and leaves me scrapping for a way to statistically prove it. Working with the most rudimentary stats available on soccernet.com, I came up with this: United is 15-2-2 in the Premiership this season when Tevez plays over 45 minutes (9-3-3 when he doesn’t). If you think such performance doesn’t deviate enough from how United performed without Tevez to mean much, then consider that those two losses both came to Liverpool, games in which Tevez still produced. Tevez scored the lone United goal in September’s 2-1 loss. And he set up United’s opening goal in the recent 4-1 loss (a score line that didn’t reflect the closeness of the match) with an incisive ball to Park Ji Sun that drew a penalty.

Given his goals-per-minute played (my intern is looking into this), and his stunning shot percentage, Tevez appears one of the most efficient players in the game – along with teammate Rooney, Messi, and a few strikers who see far less of the ball. Playing limited minutes, and openly frustrated by it, Tevez has still amassed 14 goals in all competitions this year. He scored these goals on 112 shots. Last season, he started 31 Premiership games and grabbed 14 goals and 7 assists on 92 shots. Compare these numbers to the 318 shots that Ronaldo has needed this year to get 31 goals, or the 324 that Ronaldo took in 2006/07 to bag 26. I’m not saying Tevez has been more productive than Ronaldo, as looking at shots vs. goals gives a limited and misguiding picture of a player’s productivity, but such numbers make you wonder what Tevez could do with more playing time, and more scoring opportunities.

His goals haven’t come in garbage games either. He has played a crucial role in United’s quest for the quintuple (now quadruple) this season. His four goals single-handedly crushed Blackburn in the Carling Cup. He scored two goals en route to a 4-0 win over Fulham in the FA Cup Quarterfinals. Among a few crucial Champions League goals, he scored a decisive goal in the first leg against Porto, immediately after coming off the bench.

Can plus-minus be a telling statistic in soccer? Haven’t people tried this, and where can I find it? Which other players have the best plus-minus scores in the game or on their team? Mascherano? Fabregas? Ferdinand?◊

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